This is the next installment in a series of articles providing price analysis of Top-altcoins listed on the Midas platform. Today we will be looking at Avalanche (AVAX). At the time of writing, AVAX is trading at $24.05 with a market cap of $6.8 Billion and is ranked #15 on CoinGecko.
Let’s take a look at the charts.
AVAX Price Analysis
AVAX has performed well over the last week, rising more than 16% and outperforming the market in general.
Market volatility over the last few days has caused the 4H 50SMA to fall below the 100SMA. Today an uptrend has taken the price back above all moving averages, which looks to be a bullish divergence, and confirms the 50SMA as support. Currently, this support is at $23.40.
AVAX is in danger of forming a triple top if the price fails to break above $26 on this move up. It could also form a lower high, which would be bearish. If this occurs, AVAX can retrace to lower support levels.
We can also see that the 4H 200SMA has acted as support recently. This level is currently priced at $21.05
AVAX’s RSI on the 4H chart is neutral, but Stochastic is at the top of its range. This limits upside for AVAX, raising the probability of a triple top or lower high in the coming days.
The moving averages on the daily chart are still in a bearish configuration (50 < 100 < 200), but AVAX has broken above the 50SMA, which should now act as support upon any future retrace. This support is at exactly the $20 level. Resistance will be met at the 100SMA, priced at $28.11.
Daily momentum indicators are neutral from this time frame – so AVAX really could go either way from here. It will depend on larger market movements.
AVAX is a relatively young altcoin, so its price history does not extend beyond September 2020. This means we do not have enough data to form a 100 or 200 SMA (the 50SMA is shown in the chart above). This key level is currently sitting at $64, which is a long way above where AVAX is currently trading.
AVAX’s weekly RSI is close to oversold, and stochastic is moving up – so it appears that the long-term price rally is not over.
Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis
Key to the performance of altcoins is the Bitcoin Dominance chart. If BTC’s dominance is increasing, that tends to mean alts are in a risk-off market and funds are moving toward BTC. If BTC is losing dominance, that means it’s alt season.
As you can see, BTC has been losing dominance over the past month and a half and is currently sitting around 39% dominance. This is a key level that was also found in April ‘22, signaling that we have just had a mini alt-run.
If BTC dominance finds support here, altcoins can dump. Likewise, if support breaks and dominance declines to 2021 levels, alts will rip. A crucial decision point is coming.
Conclusion
AVAX looks weak on the 4H, indecisive on the daily, and moderately oversold on the weekly. If Alt season continues, AVAX can move up and test higher resistance levels around $28. If AVAX fails to break the $26 level, however, it can retrace to support levels, first at $23 and then $20.
Not investment advice. Do your own research.
