Hello Midas Community!
We will continue with our analysis of Bitcoin price movements, as it greatly affects the altcoin markets. In this series of TA, we will conduct some TA, and look at overall trends and fundamentals. Let’s get started!
Price Analysis
Here we see the macro price movements of Bitcoin vs USD on a 4H timeframe. Ever since the large decline in mid-March, Bitcoin rose steadily before beginning a consolidation pattern between 9-10k.
If we take a closer (zoomed in) view of the chart, we see that a wedge consolidation pattern was forming, as depicted in the above picture by the red lines. These lines are determined by the candle “wicks”, which show a tightening window between support and resistance. However, the last few candles show an upward breakout from this zone.
On lower timeframes, Bitcoin is showing very bullish activity, with the 100 MA line crossing the 200 MA line, before an upward surge in value. On higher (4H) timeframes, the RSI is currently 66, showing more room for positive upside.
Investor Sentiment
One of our key indicators is the Fear/Greed index, which we use to predict overall market direction. Usually when the dial reads “fear” it indicates a good time to buy, and “greed” is a good time to sell. Since last week the price was declining, the historical values show slight “fear” – indicating that a move upward was likely. We are seeing this upward price movement now. After today’s move, it is likely that the index value will go up, but generally this remains a good buying opportunity.
Fundamentals
Last week, at time of writing there was a hash rate of approx. 112m TH/s. Today, that number has fallen to 105m TH/s. Since Bitcoin’s price is rising currently, expect the hash rate to follow suit.
After the block halving, the miners revenue is near its yearly low. In order for miners to regain their revenue, the price of Bitcoin must rise.
Analysis
Since miners are not making as much money post-halving, a convincing and sustained break above the $10k level will be explosive. Nonetheless, the $10k mark has been an extremely strong resistance, and the price has failed to hold above this key level. Technical indicators as well as investor sentiment are all bullish, and I expect the price to retest the $10k levels in the coming days. Key support levels are: $9.2k, 8.8k. Key resistances are $9.6k, 9.8k, and 10.2k.
Always do your own research before making an investment decision.
